Can you read the odds before you pay?

Every app store already requires this. Apple and Google both make a publisher disclose the odds on anything sold with a random outcome, and the big consoles adopted the same rule in 2019. So "do they disclose the odds" is a question with a boring answer: they are supposed to, and mostly they do — somewhere.

The useful question is narrower, and nobody seems to ask it:

Can you read the odds before you pay — without installing the game?

That is the moment the answer would actually change a decision. Once the game is installed, the account made and the first currency bought, a probability table is a receipt. Before any of that, it is information.

So we checked, one game at a time, on 5 September 2026. Every game on this site that sells anything random is below, sorted by what we could actually open in a browser.

Published in the open, with the numbers on the page

Clash Royale (Supercell) is the fullest disclosure here, and it is not close. Supercell's own page carries the tables themselves: rarity shares per chest, upgrade chances, the probability of a legendary card at a given level. You can read all of it having never touched the game.

Path of Exile (Grinding Gear Games) publishes drop rates item by item on the Mystery Box page, and two things beside them that almost nobody else states: duplicate protection, and a floor — you are guaranteed an item worth at least the 50 points you paid, and more likely something above it.

That floor deserves a sentence of its own. A loot box with a stated minimum value is a different product from one without, because the worst case is bounded. It is still a loot box. It is close to the most defensible way to sell one.

Marvel Strike Force (Scopely) publishes a public index of 176 orbs, each with its own probability page. The page carries a caveat we repeat rather than smooth over: the web copy is synchronised automatically with the in-game disclosure, and can lag behind it. Saying so is a point in its favour, not against it.

Published, but only inside the game

Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail (HoYoverse) print the base rates and the pity threshold on the banner details panel in-game. There is no page to open. Our own figures for these games therefore come from independent sites reproducing that screen, and we say so on the pages rather than implying we read an official source.

One thing is specific to Genshin, and it is unusual enough to record: a US federal complaint reproduced HoYoverse's own disclosure screen — 0.600% base, 1.600% consolidated, a guarantee by the 90th pull. The numbers are confirmed by the operator, through a regulator's document rather than a page of its own.

EA Sports FC Ultimate Team is the case worth stopping on.

EA has a page called "Pack Probabilities". We opened it. It contains no pack probabilities.

What it contains is an explanation that probabilities are shown in the in-game store, under a button reading "Show Pack Probabilities" — plus one example table, which the page itself labels as fictional: these probabilities are for example only and may not be the same as in the final product.

So the page is not a disclosure. It is a page about a disclosure that lives somewhere else. Search for "FC pack probabilities" and this is what you get, and it is easy to close the tab believing you have seen the odds. You have seen a worked example of what odds look like.

We are not calling this a violation of anything. EA discloses where the rules require it. We are saying that the thing you can reach from a search engine is not the thing, and that is worth knowing before you spend a season's worth of FC Points.

We looked and found no published table

Diablo Immortal (Blizzard) and RAID: Shadow Legends (Plarium). In both cases the numbers that circulate — 75.395% / 20.105% / 4.5% on Legendary Crests; one in 200 from an Ancient Shard with a mercy counter — were worked out by players from observed drops and are then repeated second-hand until they read like official figures.

Be careful with what this claim is. It is a statement about our search, not about the publishers staying silent. Disclosure inside the app stores is required, and from outside the app stores we cannot see it. What we can say is that on the open web, on the day we looked, we found nothing published by either company.

That distinction is the whole point of the section. "We could not find it" and "they do not publish it" are different sentences, and only one of them is something we know.

Nothing random is sold

Worth stating explicitly, because the assumption runs the other way. Fortnite sells a named item at a named price — what you are buying is visible before you pay, and the random llamas stayed in Save the World, showing their contents since 2019. Candy Crush Saga sells moves, lives and boosters: the game is random, the purchases are not. Warframe earns its relics in play and sells time, inventory space and appearance. And every premium game here — Hades, Portal, Stardew Valley, Elden Ring and the rest — sells nothing inside itself at all.

The distinction that matters is not "is there randomness in this game". It is "am I paying for a random outcome". Those come apart constantly, in both directions.

What this is actually for

Two practical readings come out of the table.

A published page is a weak signal of good behaviour, and a real one. Supercell and Grinding Gear Games gain nothing mechanical from publishing where the rules do not require it. They did it anyway, which tells you something small but genuine about how the product is run.

A missing page tells you less than it looks like. The absence of a public table is not evidence of hidden odds — the odds are almost certainly disclosed in the store listing. It only means the decision has to be made after installing rather than before, which is a worse position to decide from.

And one habit, which is really the only advice on this page: when a page promises a number, check that the number is on it. We assumed EA's was, right up until we opened it.